Saturday, October 3, 2009

P3 is here...but don't think we won't have rebounds.

Ok, I don't often chart my alternate counts, and now I know why. It just doesn't look that good in prophet. My initial count had i ending at whatever low we were going to hit Friday and a retrace for ii starting Friday. Friday's drop was not unexpected but the magnitude of the recovery was much smaller than I expected. I was looking for a sharp rebound but instead got a rebound reminiscent of a wave 4. So now I have relabeled an * count. This count has Fridays choppiness as a wave 4, which would lead to a bottom on Monday and then a rebound. This rebound should test resistance around 105 on SPY. Either way I am expecting a move up Monday or Tuesday.
The VIX:SPX is part of the reason for the expected move up. It has jumped out of the BB and Friday ended with a topping candle. I am looking for it to retrace back to the 50MA before making another move up. This would correspond to SPY moving up for ii.
Still no cross on the CPCI:CPCE but its getting close.
Same on the BPSPX:CPC, its getting really close.

Essentially, the move down is exhausted and we are going to have a good up move next week. If we make a new low Monday then i took about 6 days. For ii to take 6-10 days is not unreasonable so I suspect we will rise in to OPEX week. Then we will start iii of minuette (iii) of minute 1 of minor 1 of intermediate 1 of primary 3, so we have a long way to go.


John M said...

No meaningful move up until late in the week. It will take until Wed-Thurs to complete iii, then several days at least to do iv, then the final v down into November.

Pokerden said...

I could go either way John. The only reason I am looking for an immediate turn is because of the VIX:SPX chart.

iii could have ended and we could be in part of an A up. Or we could be in a 4 of iii...hard to say.