Sunday, October 18, 2009

Just an update...

Here is my count...could it be a 1-2 already? I am torn. The market is between fib levels, but is also showing signs of topping. Objectively I am leaning towards a run up to 112 as we punctured the 108 level far enough .
But then you have this nice H&S pattern that has formed on the ES.
The BPSPX:CPC has been a good indicator so still has not said to go short yet. The MA's are so close but still have not crossed over to confirm the market direction.
How much further can the VIX go down? Are we going to the teens in a massive blow off top in the market?

In conclusion, the top is near...whether behind us or just ahead of us...its near :)


Michael said...

Per "run up to 112", then that would be primary 2 top, then what is the low for future P3 bottom? P3 needs to be longest wave in time of the 5 waves, but it is difficult for me to visualize a long term P3 wave for say greater than 9 months below 66. Seems like there would be quick drop.

Pokerden said...

In general wave 3 is typically the longest. But thats not the actual EW rule, the actual rule only says that wave 3 is not the shortest.