Monday, October 25, 2010

10/25/10 Update

Daily stochs are showing strong divergence in SPY.
Today SPY was up and the VIX was up, this typically is not a good sign for the market as the VIX move shows the underlying uncertainty. Yet another divergence pointing to a roll over soon.
BPSPX:CPC was still up, but the rate of change in the 20ma is slowing down. It has yet to rollover, but it is slowing down. Again we must wait for the 20ma to turn over before getting full short again.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

10/21/10 Update

We closed at the lower trend line of the wedge. Tomorrow should be down.
VIX broke the trend and closed below.
BPSPX:CPC was surprisingly down today. Tomorrow should be a down day for the market, but still waiting on indications that we had the top of minor 2 today.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

10/19/10 Update

SPY dropped right out of the wedge. Tomorrow will be interesting. Do we follow through on the drop or manage a recovery.
VIX formed a spinning top, but closed below the red resistance line.
BPSPX:CPC was down sharply, but we will need several closes below the 20ma for it to start curling down.

Monday, October 18, 2010

10/18/10 Update

The rising wedge shown by the red dotted lines is ending soon. Could it strive for a double top?
Positive divergences in the VIX compared to SPX. This again points to a top being near.
BPSPX:CPC was down today even though the BPSPX was up and the market was up. Still waiting for it to fall below its 20ma before the turn around.

Monday, October 11, 2010

10/11/10 Update

VIX:VXV made an all time low. It has never been down this far. I thought it was a bad print till I sat down and calculated it out. Hard to see it go much lower, this is a major extreme. A move up in this indicator is a move down in the market usually.
SPY formed a doji star today which is a bearish candle stick formation. Again we are still sitting around waiting for Minor wave 2 to end. Today looks to be it.
Wow, the VIX closed way out of the BB. The BB in the chart above spans two standard deviations and normally is able to encapsulate moves. A move down out of the BB like that hasn't been seen since 2004 in the second quarter.
BPSPX has almost made it to the 70 level. Tomorrow better be a big turn around...but its opex week. Additionally, today was the lowest volume day of the entire years...

Sunday, October 10, 2010

10/10/10 Update

Stoch's still diverging a bit and volume has been down.

The VIX touched the lower BB, now its time for a move to the 20ma and then above.
BPSPX:CPC 20ma has yet to turn, basically waiting for a move in this indicator now.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

10/05/10 Update

Wow, we hit the 78.6% retrace today. If there is a place to turn its now...but then I did say that at the 50% retrace and the 61.8% retrace too...
Ok...was this the proverbial fake out above the upper portion of the rising wedge that proceeds the drop? Or is this the beginning of another leg up? Slow Stochs are diverging a bit, but this can be rectified with a more up days.
VIX is diverging, it is not making new lows with the new highs being made on the indexes. I think this is strongly indicative that people are not confident in these new highs.
BPSPX:CPC also diverging a bit. It was down today even though the market was sharply up.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

10/03/10 update

SPY is staring at the red resistance line almost everyday and just can't get past it.

VIX closed right at the 20MA. Not much I can get from this, it could go either way. The MACD histo is positive which means it VIX is trending up...but the histo is also trending down.
BPSPX:CPC 20 ma has yet to turn which is quite surprising.

Generally still waiting for the market to turn again.