Sunday, November 14, 2010

11/14/10 Update

Look at the sharp drop in the BPSPX:CPC. This is the first time it has cracked the 20ma since mid October. A few more days below and we will confirm a turn in the 20ma and a new downtrend.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

11/07/10 Update - To The Moon Alice!

Ok...a refitted happier green trend line. It does show that there is still a wee bit more to the advance. Looking for the 1228 target mentioned on Thursday. The Honeymooners was in reality before my time, but Ralph always threatened "To the moon Alice!" but he never laid a hand on her as far as I remember :) Alice never made it to the moon...and neither will the market.
We only sit on the outer BB's for so long before we revert back to the mean. If our economy is so good, why is Bernanke initiating all those bond buys? China is to us as we were to Great Britain...The next century will belong to them...for us its going to be a struggle just to maintain status quo.
The next turn in the BPSPX:CPC is going to be the big one. For now its better to stay on the sidelines until we get an indication of the turn.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

11/04/10 Update

Wow, what a move today. While spectacular, volume was not huge. It did however show that P2 has not ended and there may or may not be more of that to come. For the SPX we need to get to 1228.7 for the 62% retrace, we are currently at 1221.06. Note that we are close enough that a turn down tomorrow could end P2, or we could even go to 1381.5 for the 78.6% retrace. A turn down now is dangerous in that it looks like a double top, whats more odds are high for a reversal.
VIX bounced off lower BB, so now you expect it to move to the 20MA.
BPSPX:CPC up considerably but still below a recent high even with todays spectacular move. Need to have it under the 20ma for a few days before we confirm a reversal in the market.

Monday, November 1, 2010

11/01/10 Update

The market seems to be topping out. The stochs have fallen even though the market has maintained roughly the same level.
The VIX touched the upper BB. I am looking at a retreat to the 20MA and then a push back up to and out of the upper BB. This could easily happen in the same day.
VIX:VXV has finally broken out of its range to the upside. Its been stuck below the dotted red signal line since July.
BPSPX:CPC has no longer been making new highs even though the BPSPX has. Expecting a pull back soon that will bring the BPSPX:CPC below the 20ma.