Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Thats all she wrote...

The bearish head and shoulder pattern is still intact. We might be finishing a 2 of 1 of 5 wave down...or if you are a p2 fan...wave 2 of 1 of P3. Regardless we retraced 62% of the high and it looks set to drop from here. A target for the head and shoulders pattern would be about 81.85.
The daily stochs are approaching over bought territory. The daily candles have formed a bearish engulfing pattern. An EW target for the bottom of a 3 of 1 would be 82.2. This puts the EW target in the neighborhood of the H&S target. Things are starting to line up.

CPCI:CPCE has crossed over and the 30 continues to drop much faster than the 50.

BPSPX:CPC crossover a few days back has confirmed my belief that the market has turned.

The VIX:SPX has bounced on a support line that was formerly resistance.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Down day monday...

There is a small bearish ascending wedge on the 5 day 1 minute chart. We have also retraced 50% of the 6/11 high. Daily stochs are currently neutral.

Possible head and shoulders forming...
VIX:SPX has hit its trendline, so I expect a rebound here. Though the MACD looks worrisome as it looks to cross over.
BPX:CPC finally crossed so I expect us to revisit the low long term.

Thursday, June 25, 2009


It crossed!

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Charts in the morning...

I will be increasing my short position in the morning. BPSPX:SPX finally crossed over.

Monday, June 22, 2009


Lack of sleep, teething infant, and unexpected extra work...looks like the market is exhausted too. I am looking for a small rebound in the short term.

BPSPX:SPX still has not crossed over. Its just another confirmation I need before I expand my short position even more. I took a medium sized position when the CPCI:CPCE ma's crossed. Now waiting on this one before buying more short.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Here it comes...

The slide has started. We have a rising wedge on the 1 minute, so we should open down a bit tomorrow.

The daily stochs are very oversold at the moment, but we can stay oversold for awhile.

BPSPX:CPC has not officially crossed, but its damn close. So this hasn't confirmed the slide yet.

CPCI:CPCE has confirmed the slide has started.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

No access to charts tonight...

I don't have access to stock charts or tos tonight. Just wanted to comment that I expect a bounce up tomorrow to at least the 93 area. A long legged doji formed on the dailies signalling a potential bullish day tomorrow.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009


It crossed...

CPCI:CPCE 30ma crossed the 50ma down. I am taking a substantially larger short position. Will post the chart at lunch. Again lacking time today.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Still waiting...

Expect more analysis this weekend. This week is pretty shot for me. Still waiting for the 30 to cross the 50 on either of the charts below. VIX:SPX still in the bearish wedge.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

So close...

Long weekend for me, too much to do with so little time...Anyway I am just looking for the cross over below. Time wise I am looking for a new market bottom before the end of the year.

CPCE is still incredibly low...how long can everyone keep buying calls?

Thursday, June 4, 2009

And still not quite...

This wedge should break soon followed by a break of the rising blue channel then a bounce off the green channel line before breaking back into the green channel. Dailies are overbought still on the stochs.

I think we will finally get the curl over on the BPSPX:CPC.

CPCI:CPCE 30ma very close to crossing the 50ma. I am waiting for the cross before I increase my put position.

The VIX:SPX wedge has room to travel down before another trip up. But lets hope we break out soon.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Not quite yet...

End of day rally was strong. Are they expecting good jobs numbers tomorrow? April jobless claims was revised up significantly from an initially slightly better than expected. Dailies on SPY still remain overbought.

We can't quite cross on the CPCI:CPCE...but soon...

VIX:SPX approaching upper trendline again...will we make it through and stay above? If not there is still some more rally room.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Over bought...

Rising wedge, rising channel, and the dailies are over bought. There is still room to run a little bit more, but I can't see it going too much more with out a good retrace.

Argh, CPCI:CPCE is so close to crossing over...still waiting for it to cross before I commit fully. Look at the CPCE blue trend line. How much longer can it maintain that level?

Similar to the rising wedge above...there is some room for VIX:SPX to travel to the lower trend line. But from there it should break out and retrace at least 50%.

Yes finally people are getting more optimistic...lets hope this remains a contrarian indicatior.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Breakout or Fakeout?

GM declares bankruptcy...of course we rally like mad. SPY broke out of the Green channel its been in for almost a year and a half and is maintaining its rise well within the blue rising channel.

The SPX monthly for the past 20 years shows the SPX has also broken through some VERY long term trends.

$CPCI:CPCE thought about crossing, I really think the cross is eminent.

And of course I had to adjust the upper trendline on the VIX:SPX falling wedge as all those breaks actually followed a trend. Interestingly enough the VIX was positive today even with the strong SPX rally.

Breakout or fakeout? Well it will be a little wile before we know. I expect in the short term we will pull back to work out overbought conditions.