Friday, October 9, 2009

Everyone expects it to make new highs...

There is room in the green rising wedge for another run up to the top wedge line maybe to about 108 or so. Also note that this formation has declining volume which increases the likelihood of a break down out of the wedge. A smaller pink wedge has formed in the last two days with declining volume also. The volume is key to identifying the probability that the rising wedge will break down.
Still pixels away from crossing on the BPSPX:CPC.
Now this VIX chart is the reason I think we will reverse hard on Monday. The VIX closed on support today.
Finally this one is interesting, I got this over at Traders-Talk. Note how bonds have been in a slow controlled rise from the March lows. Then all of a sudden last week they broke down. This is foreshadowing what is going to happen in the equities. Generally it assumed that the bond traders are a bit more skilled than equities traders.

The VIX and the bonds lead me to believe that if the top is not in, it will be soon and it will not be at much higher levels than we are at now.

On a side note: Obama winning the Nobel Prize for promises he made during the election gives you some idea of the world we live in now. Promises and rhetoric are valued more than substance and results. If the economy goes where many of us think its going, history has shown that the U.S. will become more isolationist and protectionist. If prizes are given on promises, ok...big promises, then I promise peace on earth and good will to men...Now can I have my Nobel Prize?


Anonymous said...

any time line or do you think its sell the earning news,pep and aa are selling off along with others

Pokerden said...

I would think a sell off through earnings season...with economic news...retailers will not be hiring as strongly this holiday season.