Thursday, October 8, 2009

One way or the other?

Ignore the (iv) right now its a remnant. But right now we are at the cusp of a major move. The problem is that major move can be either up or down in the short term. Longer term its clearly down. Kenny posted a count like the one above, basically with wave (ii) being a 3-3-5 correction. Of course, the other more popular count is that we are in wave 5 up to new highs.
BPSPX:CPC ma's are just pixels apart from crossing. The top is near, either behind us or in front of us. At the same time we are about to break down out of the wedge that we have been in for a year now.
The VIX:SPX formed a bullish hammer today. While this is a low reliability formation, we will get confirmation tomorrow. But there is still a little room for it to travel to the .022 area for support.

Based on this chart I DO NOT expect a new high or at most a marginal new high. In fact tomorrow would look like an excellent day to short. A bull flag/pennant formed today so I expect a pop in the morning and then a sell off though the day.