Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Much clearer now...

You can see we had a nice bearish rising wedge today with head fake to the upside before collapsing. Wave 4 retraced the perfect amount up to the 38.2% fibonacci level before beginning wave 5 down. Wave 1 was about 4 points (78.35-74.2) and wave 3 as marked was about 6 points (75.58 - 69.6). With wave 4 ending at 72.84, gives us a target range from 66.84 - 68.84 as the end for wave 5 (in red), which also ends the blue wave 3.

After the completion of blue wave 3, I expect a sharp rise and then choppiness till we hit the wave 4 target around 75.5-76 before the final collapse of blue wave 5 down. I expect the blue wave 5 to be a 5 wave structure in itself with a target in the low 600's.
Still no sign of turning around above.

ps. Jobless claims could be the key for the run down to the high 60's. If you are not short right now, you probably just want to hold and start building a long position starting below 69.


tommy t said...

good stuff spy!

Johnny said...

good call!! It is really down to 68.xx today