Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Looking for a retrace...

Currently Looking for a retrace to exit out of portions of my short position. We are oversold on all time frames below 1 day. We are still overbought on the daily. A bearish rising wedge formed with declining volume. I expect a little bit of a bounce/consolidation tomorrow before any continued down pressure. I currently have a retrace down to the 38% area...As this is a wave 2 we could easily go to the 62% area (73.28).

On the dailies we are still a bit oversold on the Stochs as well as MCO. $CPC is sitting at 0.76. At this point I don't know if the FED/Treasury will be able to do too much more. They are printing trillions. The inflation effect on equities might scew forecasts if it starts jumping quickly.
The only tidbit left is mark-to-market. If they remove that, it could have the opposite effect. If removed, the banks can value their assets however they please. In that case, who would invest in banks not knowing what their true worth is?
EW counts are on hold as primary wave 2 counts, GBT/ROB46 wave 1 count and probably others are overlapping.


Daneric said...

It may be a wedge and work out the same if it overshoots the upper wedgeline.

ALso I don't think you can place the lower left corner of the upper wedgeline on the previous downleg like you did.

But then again, you can place a trendline anywhere you please!

Thats my motto LOL

Pokerden said...

well it worked :-P