Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Definitely down tomorrow...Version 2.0


Today was proceeding nicely up until the Fed meeting. We were headed down toward the bottom trend line on the flag. Interesting that even with the sharp spike, we did not exceed the channel for the flag. Stochs and MCO are super high on the daily (even higher than in version 1.0). The day finished right at the 61.8% retrace. We are looking at a multiday pull back. Take a look at the $CPC, there was a lot of call buying today...which again is bearish as the $CPC is a contrarian indicator.


Interesting that while $CPC got more bearish our other contrarian indicator from www.sentimentrader.com became less bearish (ie not as optimistic as before)

I accumulated more SRS calls today. Lets hope we don't have "Definitely down Tomorrow...Version 3.0".

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kenny and Dano are claiming P2 now. Any comment? Thanks..

Pokerden said...

I haven't been over to read Dan's stuff yet. We are out of the ideal channel...but thats common. SPY did violate the wave 1 rule, but $SPX did not. Currently everyone is looking in detail to see how many waves up they can count from the bottom to get some clue if its P2. I really think its difficult to tell one way or another until we either make a new low or exceed wave 1 on the $SPX.

Pokerden said...

just read daneric's stuff. it is very possible that we are in P2...but for me there is still no reason to change for now...as we there will be a retrace regardless. again I probably won't change unless we violate the wave 1 area on the SPX.

tommy t said...

hard to imagine any "real" sell before expo done. But, ST certainly overcooked.

Roy S said...

Got sell signals today on SPX and DOW in the last hour. Hope you're right on the multi day pullback. Looking for a good place to load up on calls.

Great work on your blog!

Pebs said...

By the slimmest of margins, we might still be in P1. Your thoughts, Poker?

Pokerden said...

No kidding...slimmest margins indeed. We got some impulses going on in this pullback, I will label and number a chart by sunday. If we were in p2, we should see corrective moves...Anyway its still too early to tell, but right now I am still going with P1.