Saturday, January 24, 2009

Still a bit more down before up...

There will still be a bit more down before up...Actually from a technical perspective, the market is extremely week. We have had 3 days to recover one down day and still have been unable to do it. I am looking for a rally...but not just yet I still think we got a little ride to the mid to high 700's first. SPY was unable to break out of a symetrical triangle that has formed over the past we saw two attempts and both fell back in the triangle. Finally the PUT/CALL ratio has dropped significantly, which means the retail has been picking a ton of calls expecting the bounce. This is extremely bearish.

The stochs on the daily look like they are turning up...but they can stay in the oversold region for many many days before unclear right now.

I flipped on Thursday to net short, holding a small amount of feb calls and a medium amount of mar puts. Here is an updated ewave chart, so far no changes.