Thursday, January 22, 2009

My messy chart today...but I had a slight eureka...

The above is the simplified cleaned up version of the below...

You guys are going to have to concentrate hard to figure this chart out :). Basically I am too lazy to split everything out.
What the chart basically says is that wave 1 has not finished! Ok...this goes against pretty much everyone out there (ie daneric, kenny, and the other e-wavers) But it struck me that from 91.07 to 80.18 on the chart was basically a 5 wave structure.
Now if you look at wave 3(black) of that structure you will see that its wave 4(black) retraced almost EXACTLY 50% (85.95 area) like it should.
Now if you consider that wave 3 (red) you will see that its wave 4 retraced VERY close to 38.2% (84.34 area). This tells me we have not completed wave 5 yet, so I expect a final push into the 76-78 area to finish the BIG wave 1 down. After that I am looking for a retrace up to the 86-87 area to finish wave 2 (I believe this will coincide with the stimulus package). Then a collapse for the MONSTER wave 3 down.
Also note the green triangle that is formed by the choppiness over the last few days (courtesy of johneeboy3 from Atilla's Xtrends) The triangle should resolve in the next day or so, and my guess is down as that was the trend entering the triangle. Schweizer135 off of StockTock also noted that we are in a descending channel and have had sell offs after hitting the 50dma.


TJ said...

Yeah, mine get messy too. Thanks for the dedicated work!