Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Hmm...Obama crash...

Ok... Sure didn't go the way I was thinking, the UK banking situation and State Street sure did not help things.
Lets start with the upper left chart, its based off one by Schweizer135 from Stocktock. It shows that we are in a rising trend still and have hit the bottom channel.
The upper right chart is SPY 60 min and it shows that we formed a sharp declining wedge today. We broked out to the down side of the rising wedge much much sooner than I anticipated. I left my original forecast in there in green.
The lower left chart is the vix and we can see that a rising wedge has formed there, I expect it to break and pull back a good bit before the next run up. Which would correspond to a rally in the market.
The lower right chart is ES minis. It shows that the futures contract was able to retrace up the 86 area before the collapse. This could mean that wave 2 is over.
But I doubt that. I think we will get a good bit of rally over the next few days. All though I expect more poor earnings, I also expect much news from Obama.
But to play it safe I did partially hedge my position Feb calls with some Mar puts. Intermediate and long term, I do expect the market to take a severe dive. Short term I expect a little bit of a rally.