Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Rising wedge still

We can make one more run at the top...which will put is in the 86-87 range, then its likely a plummet from there. Volume has been decreasing on this run up from 80.6 and the MACD histo is diverging. The stochs on the 10m look like they are about to roll over. 87 would put us at the 50% retracement and would fill a linger gap that we left there, while 85.5ish would be a 38.2% retracement and give us the bare minimum we need before a plummet. Or we could just plummet starting tomorrow :-P
Banking stocks continue to wave their bear flag. WFC reports tomorrow and could have impact. Leaked news about the "Bad Bank" plan has given the bulls renewed hope. But of course any plan will be hotly debated by congress ad nauseum, while market deteriorates.
Buying bad assets will help the banks and improve the "look" of their balance sheets. But the days of insane profitability are over, with new regulations and tighter controls banks will no long be able to generate the income they once did.
Pokerden's view: We have passed the point where having banks lend will rescue the economy. Bank have tightened lending standards and they are not going to lend to the same people/groups/companies that they once lent to. Many of those seeking loans are desperate now, some might survive with the loans others will not. Consumers have cut back on spend, houses are not selling, and jobs are being lost. Moving bad assets to the government will not stop this.