Thursday, August 19, 2010

Hazy a few days followed by extreme downage...

Tomorrow might be down a bit in the morning then up, or it might be just up tomorrow. Basically I am looking for a retrace potentially to the 109 area, but possibly higher if Daneric's expanded flat plays out. So we are either in the midst of (iii) down or about to be.
We bounced off the neckline of this head and shoulders formation. Potentially we could trace out a big more of a shoulder, but again it points downward after that. The HS target for $SPX is about 1000 and for SPY its about 100. This is a good target as Minor 1 wave down on SPY was about 101.
VIX touched the upper BB. It should pull back for a day or two before exploding out like it did at the end of April. The lower probability option is that the VIX just shoots up now.
BPSPX:CPC was up today even though it was a down market. On close examination we see that BPSPX stayed the same, so the put call ratio was down today. This hints at a positive day tomorrow. But todays value was still below the 20MA so it is bringing down the average. Time to short big on the next spike up in the market.

This weekend I will be looking at the Hindenburg Omen in greater detail along with the new version from this past weekend.

10:07pm update:

Looking through some charts and I ran across this one. The green lines are points where the VIX:VXV crossed its 50MA moving up. Sharp declines have generally followed. Looks like we hit it again today.
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