Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Did wave 3 down start?

Last night's post seems to have been spot on. We made it to just above the 50% retrace and not quite to the 62% fib before turning back. Now is this the beginning of a wave 3 down OR are we in some sort of b wave in a complex ABC up for minuette 2?
I had thought the wave 2 would end at the lower BB on the VIX, but the kiss off the 20ma on the VIX daily is also a good place to bounce.
Finally its this chart that leads me to believe that we have started a minuette wave 3 down. The market was definitely positive today but the BPSPX:CPC was down. That is a clear divergence and has caused the 20ma to flatten. There is a chance that we may turn up tomorrow for one final push, but the odds of that appear low. Even if there is a spike tomorrow, it will not last long. Now the trade using BPSPX:CPC isn't made until we see a tick down on the 20ma and its not really confirmed until the 20ma crosses the 50ma. But in this instance the EW count and state of the VIX gives us some hints.
blog comments powered by Disqus