Thursday, January 21, 2010

Wave (iii) down...but which wave (iii) :-P

The above is my count based on the squiggles. It is signficantly more bearish than competing counts. I am looking for a low around 111.3. Now if it goes significantly below that, then I expect that will be the end of (iii). If it rebounds in that area I suspect it will retrace to around the 50-62% area(where ii is marked) and then we will see iii of (iii).
The VIX made a huge move today. It crossed the upper BB and finished above it. The day following a BB puncture, is usually a move back into the BB. This is why I am leaning towards a retrace up as shown by my wave ii, be warned as the move up can also be wave iv of (iii).

BPSPX:CPC 20 ma has started to curve down this is the "early warning" to sell. Confirmation does not happen until the 20 crosses the 50ma.

Tomorrow I expect bit of a retrace up.
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