Sunday, January 24, 2010

Rebound before we see some real action...

SPY rebounded at a lower trendline support. I was early on the rebound call missing out on the bulk of the drop on Friday. Currently looking for a rebound up to the 62% retrace (may only go as high as 50%...or we might see bullishness come back and push it up to 78%)
The VIX move was very unexpected on Friday, which was essentially a 4 sigma move it looks like. The VIX will retrace in side the BB on monday.
The early sell signal has been given by the BPSPX:CPC as the 20ma has turned down. A cross of the 50ma will confirm.

So essentially, I am looking for the wave [ii] retrace next week lasting 1-3 days. After which I am looking for minute wave [iii] down.
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