Friday, February 5, 2010

Totally where are we?

Here is my revised count. I really did not expect the drop to be as strong as it was. Just as the bull rally was stronger than expected since last march. This sharp drop is stronger than I expected for Minute [i]. Now there is the possibility that where I have marked (iv) could be minute [ii] and we are in for a bad Friday and a black Monday. I think its too early for that. We are in the early stages of P3 down.
VIX painted out a bull flag and bounced off the 20MA. I was expecting a run to the lower BB for minute [ii] but instead it headed to the upper BB again.
BPSPX:CPC has not crossed. But its awfully damn close. Note that it will probably cross and the market may spike during that correction up. Regardless it will confirm the down trend.

I am forecasting a sharp bounce up. But I have been wrong many days in a row now as this turn has been much strong than I anticipated.
The first chart had the fibs drawn where I was looking to see how much my (iv) retraced the previous wave (iii). The above chart shows the fib areas for the actual minute [ii] retrace if the count is right.
blog comments powered by Disqus