Saturday, May 23, 2009

A reminder...

A reminder that we very well can be in P1. Wave (4) hit the channel exactly and bounced off. It also made it to the same region has the wave 4 of wave (3). Note that the rise has been on declining volume on the dailies.

This does not totally negate that we could be in P2. Wave (5) might be truncated and look to be the same as the corrective in P2. I just favor P1 still because it fits the channel.
We hit the 90 target I had on friday. I will post an update on sunday.


Anonymous said...

While possible, a continued P1 count would mean ignoring the profound bullish breaks on every long term sentiment indicator after your 3. Wave 4's usually don't break trendline, let alone to that degree.

For now, fortunately, both counts (P1 and P2) are moving in the same direction.

Bob Campbell said...

I'm new to your blog. Would you please tell me what a P1 and P2 are.

Pokerden said...

P1 stands for Primary wave 1 and P2 stands for Primary Wave 2. From an Elliott Wave principle stand point there should be 5 primary waves that comprise this Cycle down. Depending on how you count the waves we are either still in the 1st wave down or the second wave up. P3 is down, P4 is up and finally P5 is down. Each primary wave is made up of 5 intermediate waves and so can get a quick synopsis at:

Pokerden said...

Basically the majority of Elliott Wave people believe that the primary wave 1 down ended around the low of March, while I subscribe more to the view that that low ended intermediate wave 3 down as shown in my chart. For now both counts are in alignment and it will take time to figure out which is the actual correct one.

Bob Campbell said...

Thanks, I too am on board with P1 low of March 6, but I hate to be surprised so I'm always thinking out side the box, and try to create both bullish as well as bearish counts. That way if does not go as expected I have a scenario in place.

I'm not trading on the idea that this count is correct but it does not hurt to keep an open mind

I call it The Big Flat Chart.