Thursday, May 14, 2009

Green shoots wilting already???

Jobless claims were higher than expected. Bulls all think we turned around and today was a little bit of a wake up call. GM's time is limited and we can expect significant layoffs there also. But these layoffs are just the tip of the iceberg as it will filter through the rest of America's car making infrastructure. But of course we rally on bad job numbers, because we always do... I am still looking at an short term target of 88 for SPY.

The above chart looks like we have marked a major interim top. The BPSPX:CPC 20 ma looks like its starting to curl over. If the 20ma crosses the 50ma we will have confirmation that this will be a major down move. We still have to wait to see how this pull back plays out. Intermediate targets 38.2% retrace (83.21), 50% retrace (80.14) and a 61.8% (77.06).

The short term wedges played out but kept getting retested on the VIX:SPX...Zooming out we see that we are in a much larger bullish falling wedge. while the macd histo looks positive, the 50 ma has crossed the 200ma down which is a bearish sign. There is room for a move to the lower trendline before turning up.

This could be the big move down starting, but as yet I don't see the catalysts. Yes, CRE is bad and credit cards are starting to feel the pinch (Advanta has stopped lending...guess I have to switch out my advanta card). The employment situation is getting worse. Has anyone taken a peak at the problems with Eastern Europe? Its very possible, in Elliot wave terms, that we have finished an A move up and have started a B move to one of the fib targets listed...followed by a final C move to 1000+ to bring in the final bulls and crush the last bears. Time wise we could see this play out for the rest of the year with C peaking in January. This would mean that 2010 would be a very bad year.

Its also possible that this is the start of the move to below the March lows. Will just have to wait to see how it plays out.


Mr Lee said...

Enjoy your blog.So kind.Good luck!
We hope that we will have the opportunity to make friends with you.
We invite you to come to our blog. You are welcome any time.

Schweizer said...

You might want to consider this in your nearterm thinking.

Thanks for your blog. I read it everyday.

Pokerden said...

Thats what I have been debating. Actually I am in total agreement that we will break the March lows. Its the timing that I am not sure of and am waiting to see play out. Whether its an ABC that will complete by the end of the year...or whether we head down right away and make new lows by year end.

Pokerden said...

Mr Lee,
Wow those are some detailed paper carvings.