Saturday, January 31, 2009

We could be headed to New Lows...


That island top reversal/bearish evening star formation I have in the green circle above marks an intermediate top. I hope everyone got really short the next day. Anyway I am looking at a move to 81.5, where we should get a bounce back up. This bounce is fairly significant as it will validate certain counts. Targets for the bounce range from 84-85 area if we are in wave 2 of 3 of 5 down. Other targets are in the 88-90 area if we are still in wave 1 of 5 down.
I will look at the charts this weekend and put up what I think Sunday evening...

Friday, January 30, 2009

No time today...

No time today...other than to say I believe we are in wave 1 of 3 of 5 to the final bottom...We should get a bounce around the 81 area to finish wave 1.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Yikes...


Macd crossed over...histo still a bit descending and volume wasn't thrilling...skating on top of the rising wedge...possible shot at 88.85...really depends on market reaction to durable goods and jobs numbers...Will post more tomorrow.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Rising wedge still


We can make one more run at the top...which will put is in the 86-87 range, then its likely a plummet from there. Volume has been decreasing on this run up from 80.6 and the MACD histo is diverging. The stochs on the 10m look like they are about to roll over. 87 would put us at the 50% retracement and would fill a linger gap that we left there, while 85.5ish would be a 38.2% retracement and give us the bare minimum we need before a plummet. Or we could just plummet starting tomorrow :-P
Banking stocks continue to wave their bear flag. WFC reports tomorrow and could have impact. Leaked news about the "Bad Bank" plan has given the bulls renewed hope. But of course any plan will be hotly debated by congress ad nauseum, while market deteriorates.
Buying bad assets will help the banks and improve the "look" of their balance sheets. But the days of insane profitability are over, with new regulations and tighter controls banks will no long be able to generate the income they once did.
Pokerden's view: We have passed the point where having banks lend will rescue the economy. Bank have tightened lending standards and they are not going to lend to the same people/groups/companies that they once lent to. Many of those seeking loans are desperate now, some might survive with the loans others will not. Consumers have cut back on spend, houses are not selling, and jobs are being lost. Moving bad assets to the government will not stop this.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Bonus...a SICK bank...

Bonus time tonight...Several of my colleagues bought BAC on the recent drop...including myself. I haven't had time to look at the chart until now. Good thing I was only in it for a trade :) BAC has set up a huge bear flag. We see volume declining as well as negative divergence on the MACD histo. This thing is about to crash.

So if this bear flag plays out to its target...then BAC should be $-2.00 !

Ok...to be fair...C and WFC are exhibiting the same behavior :-P