Sunday, September 20, 2009

Something is going to happen...and soon...

For the near term it looks like a small bull pennant has formed. So we might be looking at a pop at the opening on Monday. Though I wouldn't know from what, futures are down slightly as I write this.
Here is my big picture with my long term green support/resistance lines. We are very near the end of P2. Everything is eerily calm. Obama has everyone focused on the healthcare initiative, no one is paying attention to the economy. Government guarantees on Money Market accounts quietly expired on Friday. Cash for clunkers has are those car sales going to be now?
It takes awhile for unemployment to turn around. People are still losing jobs and this Christmas looks like its going to be extremely tight. Those retailers who were hanging on in hopes of a good holiday season are really just the walking dead. Companies like Sears may not exist in their current state a year from now. I see P3 starting right before the holidays with consumers cutting back even more. This will lead to THE WORST RETAIL SEASON EVER. This will push everything down hard and fast next year imagine what 3 of 3 of P3 is going to look like. (For non EW people wave 3 is the sharpest and fastest move...and this will be move down).

Now here is my hybrid BPSPX:CPC chart, it basically saved me when I thought the downturn started in early July. When the BPSPX:CPC crossed the 20MA moving up it was a red flag to get out of my short positions. Right now it looks like its getting ready to tell me to take up short positions. Confirmation is when the 20MA crosses the 50 moving down. The ascending wedge for the 20ma is interesting. Because its a moving average on the Bullish Percent index, it is going to break down out of the wedge, there is no question if its going to break down its not like a stock. Its guaranteed to break down.
VIX:SPX has also formed a falling wedge that should break out any day now to the upside.