Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Finally Wave 3 down???


The daily candles have formed a bearish evening doji star on the daily candlesticks. We also see the stochs have curled down. This could be the start of our journey to the sub 700 area. BUT we still have not crossed over the green trend line, so there is hope yet for the bulls. For those trading the channel they bought today kicking up the close at the end. Each successive bounce off the trend line has brought about a lower high.
The CBOE equity put call ratio is still at extreme lows, which is tremendously Bearish. If this is truly the start of wave 3, we are looking at sub 700 within the next 2 weeks...then a bounce back up for wave 4...and then a final low from wave 5 (looking between 600-650). I suspect/hope this will be THE LOW...If not (in other words we V bottom), then we are looking at potentially 300's before year end. I will post an updated Elliot wave chart with projections for the end of wave 3 tomorrow.

3 comments:

tommy t said...

this wave thing and the count is getting old...BUT, more importantly,it is bearish to have every rally rejected easily, and to be very close to the lows at this point. It seems the only way the bulls could hurt the bearish case, is to gap up like 500-700, clear multiple resistance levels, and then get the bears to have to run for cover...otherwise the staying power for the bulls has been minimal. We get new lows either way is my call. A new nominal low and reverse, or straight out new low and collapse further.

Pokerden said...

We probably get a bit of bounce in the morning...but we really need to break down through the green trendline to confirm the bear case.

tommy t said...

yes, your green line and SPX 800ish are important to break.