Sunday, March 28, 2010


MACD on the VIX has crossed over positive. I think it will take a short trip to the upper BB, then maybe back to the the 20ma and then a spike up like late in January.
Waiting for the BPSPX:CPC 20ma to curl back over. This next curl over and cross should be the beginning of P3, timewise this could take anywhere from weeks to months...

Still looking for a pullback in the next day or so. Intermediate term looking at 122, long term looking for a major drop.

Still getting over the flu, will have time for a big update tomorrow as I will be sitting in a hotel room with plenty of free time...

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Still looking for a bit of a pull back before final highs...

VIX bounced off the lower BB on the dailies. Look for a move in the VIX to the 20ma.
The BPSPX:CPC 20 ma has now crossed the 50ma moving up. Nothing to do now but wait for it to curl over. We see that the divergence earlier between the SPX and BPSPX has worked itself out.
Sitting here with a 101 fever, so I am not going to do too much more tonight. Just that there needs to be a fairly sharp pullback soon.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

1228 SPX?

We are between the 50% and 62% retrace on the SPX, not a very satisfactory place to turn around for P2. Its starting to look convincing that we may make it up to the 1228 level on the SPX.
The negative divergence with the BPSPX is starting straighten itself out. BPSPX:CPC is looking to have the 20 cross the 50 moving up. Typically this usually points to a couple of weeks net positive.
VIX touched the lower BB, at least for the very short term I expect a bounce to the 20ma. So for the very short term it looks like a pull back is coming. For the intermediate term it looks like P2 might not be over. Clearly we are still in P2, the question now is how long will it last.

I will take a look at China for redvettes :) But not until tomorrow night.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Just a little more up...

VIX is hanging out at resistance right now. Maybe a small bounce up before a turn.
Negative divergence occurring in the BPSPX and SPX. I expect a little more up and then a reverse from there.
Will try to give a very detailed post on Wednesday as life is getting in the way again...

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Looks like my purchase will be for the short term...

The extremely sharp rise in the past month has been on ever decreasing volume. My purchase today is likely to be much shorter term than I anticipated. The SPY Daily is exhibiting a "shooting" star like formation. I am looking for a pullback tomorrow and into Thursday.
VIX painted two black candles in a row. So the VIX is technically up today as well as the market. This is interesting and you can see some of it in the CPCI:CPCE chart later on. VIX has been far from the 20ma for quite some time now. It needs to revert back to its mean.
BPSPX:CPC warned us early that this rally might happen. I was hoping for a good pull back to get out but that did not happen.
There has been massive call buying in equities. The market has been going up for 1 month now. We see that the CPCE has dropped sharply indicating massive call buying relative to puts. Everyone is buying calls with the market being up for a month? I think this is the time for a sharp drop to make those calls worthless.

Admittedly, we will have to wait for the BPSPX:CPC 20ma to cross the 50ma going up and then coming back down before we can make a big commitment.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Buying puts in th AM

Life gets in the way of updates. It's been an incredibly hectic weekend. Anyway the title says it all. I will post a bog update tomorrow night with charts.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Still hanging out in the resistance band...

So are we consolidating for a move up? or have we run out of gas and are slowing rolling over?
BPSPX:CPC is down sharply even though the market was up. We see that the BPSPX component was up, which means CPC was up sharply. Someone is getting nervous purchasing puts.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Ok...we reached the target...

We hit the target I had mentioned in an earlier post. We have reached the green resistance area.
Vix painted a hollow red candle which looks vaguely "three riverish". I would expect the VIX to turn now and the market to reverse.