Monday, February 22, 2010

One more little run up to resistance,,,

The bounce up looks like it has one more little run left. Potentially near the 79% retrace area which is in the middle of the resistance area denoted by the black dotted lines. In strict EW terms that is it, unless of course the count is wrong :-P
The VIX looks ready to rebound up. Nine down bars in a row is impressive. In other words it has taken 9 days to try to recover the damage that was done in essentially two days.
BPSPX:CPC still above its 20MA. If you look at the top part of the chart you will see just the BPSPX. From the 73 area it moved to the 65 area during the first week of February. A move of 6 points down when the BPSPX is above 70 is a strong technical sell indicator. Of course it happened during the same week as when the 20ma crossed the 50ma down.

The move up still needs a retrace and the nature of the retrace will be interesting. Will we move sharply down to the lower 900 level if this is minute [iii] or will we bounce around minute[ii] longer? My bet is that we bounce up a little further and then drop like a rock. The BPSPX:CPC has me a little worried though.

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