Above is Kenny's count on the $SPX...wave 4 of (5) was a bit unsatisfactory but other counts suffer from the same problem. That and the ending diagonal formation (you have to zoom into a smaller time frame) caused Kenny to predict early on that wave 5 was finished. This caused him to revise his count to the above...he caught it first and caught it early!
The above is Rob46 and GBT's count from Stocktock.com. It differs in that instead of moving wave (4) back, it moves wave(3) forward to the March low. Wave (4) might be almost complete at the 23.6% retrace...but likely is tracing out an ABC pattern which will finish at 96. The A leg looks complete or near complete and we should be experiencing the B leg(pullback) soon, followed by a final thrust to complete the C leg at around 96.
What makes the above counts tricky is the B pull back for the second count will look the same as wave 2 of Kenny's count up. The C leg thrust up will look like wave 3 up in Kenny's count. For a good while they will have the same potential targets.
Finally there is a more obscure count (I think Chrys from Atilla's Xtrends) that says wave (4) finished on 11/04/08 and from then on we have been tracing out a HUGE ending diagonal. Some people don't like that count (daneric :-P) but after going over the Elliot wave book I have found examples of ending diagonals that were exceptionally long time wise. The advantage of this count is that the unsatisfactory wave 4 in the counts above are easily explained as the unusual looking 5 wave structure from 1/06/09 - 3/06/09 is really simply a 3 wave structure within the 33333 ending diagonal.
Those are the mainline counts that I am considering. Kenny's Primary wave 2 count is where alot of E wavers are behind right now I believe (Daneric, Kemal, Mole, etc). GBT and Rob46's count is the one I am leaning towards myself, it looks just as natural to me as Kenny's.
Chrys count is more obscure and I haven't found anyone really following it. I don't know if I like some of the compressed structures early on, but its scale on the ending diagonal is possible and it takes care of certain other problems. You can also look at it as simply a bullish descending wedge that needs one more touch of the bottom trendline before busting up through the top.
10 comments:
Regarding the third count, my problem with it is that W4 was too short timewise. W4 often takes longer time than W3. Could it be possible that W4 labeled by Chris could be A, the recent rally is E? W5 should start soon as soon as it reverses at E. The justification for Kenny's P2 count is the sentimental change at least according to the news media that recession is about to be over soon.
There's something dastardly ingenious about Chrys's count. I rule it out on a formal basis, but, there's something there. I don't know what it is yet, but we're attracted to it for some reason.
IMO, all of the above counts are incorrect. I would suggest that 666 marked the bottom of 5 of C and THE BOTTOM is in.
We will now spend years in wave D up of the giant wave 4 triangle that started in 2000.
We should chop between 750 and 1200 for the next 5 years.
Yang,
Thats not necessarily the case their are many examples in the Prechter book that has wave 4 shorter in time than wave 3...and examples that are longer. I don't think there are strict rules on the length of wave 4 in relation to wave 3. There are some general rules regarding wave 2 and 4.
GBT,
Daneric ruled it out on a formal basis also...but if its the long time frame of the ending diagonal that bothers people, there are clearly many examples with wave 5 ending diagonal taking much longer than the other waves.
Viperbear,
I have wondered about that also. That all the waves labeled () are really primary waves and wave C has ended. I don't see the triangle right off, more of an expanding wedge...can you elaborate further?
I am not sure how to post a chart on this forum.
Basically, everything down from 1500 has been an ABC flat with an elongated C wave.
The 5 wave C wave portion of the flat started at 1440 and finished with 5 waves down at 666 (actually completed at about 673)
Wave 4 was a perfect adcde contracting triangle between the low in Oct at 840 and the high in feb at 873.
Wave 5 of C went from 873 to 666.
We are now done with the major selling and should trade sideways for at least 5 years while the criminals on WS sort this economic mess out.
Whoops, that should read, Wave 4 was a perfect "abcde" contracting triangle between the low in Oct at 840 and the high in feb at 873.
What about a diferent count? Wave 3 ended Nov 21 and wave 4 ended Jan 6, and we could be in wave 5, in 2 ways.
1st - minor 1 ended Jan 20; minor 2 ended Feb 9; minor 3 ended Mar 6; now in minor 4;
2nd - minor 1 ended Mar 6; now in minor 2;
Nuno,
1st - minor 1 ended Jan 20; minor 2 ended Feb 9; minor 3 ended Mar 6; now in minor 4;
The problem with that is minor 4 has violate minor 1...so unless its an ending diagonal that count cannot be right.
2nd - minor 1 ended Mar 6; now in minor 2;
The problem with this is in terms of scale...this would make wave 5 the longest wave and timewise it would be extremely long...it would not be a minor wave.
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