What ii doesn't look like...

Ok, we still could be in the count that I listed above, but it is very doubtful. While it doesn't break the rules technically, ii have become a little extended. Dan's current count looks the best. Basically we are finishing the C wave of P2 up.
BPSPX:CPC still has not crossed, so there is still room to move up as it has retreated a bit.
I expected a retrace back down to the 50ma and then a bounce up now its looking like back down to the 20ma.

CPCI:CPCE still having issues, things turned strongly bullish.

Whats ii look like?

The rebound up today was much sharper than I anticipated. In fact the day ended with a bull flag for a potential gap up tomorrow. If my target of 104.71 is met, I will still not be confident that iii has started as this could easily become an ABC formation. We could easily end churning for a few days and end up at my original spot in the chart above.


BPSPX:CPC STILL has not crossed, but I expect it to in the next couple of days.

VIX:SPX moved as I expected in my post on saturday. Now I expect it to kiss off the 50ma and that will signal the start of iii.
Similar to the BPSPX:CPC the CPCI:CPCE shows turning points. Of course it has not crossed yet either.
So in summary I expect a little more up tomorrow and then the fall will continue either in the form of iii starting or b of ii starting. I have my calls set to sell just below my target and puts to buy at the same level.

Can it be more clear than this?

Please see my Saturday post for actual commentary :)

P3 is here...but don't think we won't have rebounds.

Ok, I don't often chart my alternate counts, and now I know why. It just doesn't look that good in prophet. My initial count had i ending at whatever low we were going to hit Friday and a retrace for ii starting Friday. Friday's drop was not unexpected but the magnitude of the recovery was much smaller than I expected. I was looking for a sharp rebound but instead got a rebound reminiscent of a wave 4. So now I have relabeled an * count. This count has Fridays choppiness as a wave 4, which would lead to a bottom on Monday and then a rebound. This rebound should test resistance around 105 on SPY. Either way I am expecting a move up Monday or Tuesday.
The VIX:SPX is part of the reason for the expected move up. It has jumped out of the BB and Friday ended with a topping candle. I am looking for it to retrace back to the 50MA before making another move up. This would correspond to SPY moving up for ii.
Still no cross on the CPCI:CPCE but its getting close.
Same on the BPSPX:CPC, its getting really close.

Essentially, the move down is exhausted and we are going to have a good up move next week. If we make a new low Monday then i took about 6 days. For ii to take 6-10 days is not unreasonable so I suspect we will rise in to OPEX week. Then we will start iii of minuette (iii) of minute 1 of minor 1 of intermediate 1 of primary 3, so we have a long way to go.

P3 for better or worse.

Here is my count. It differs a bit from Kenny's and Daneric's and its a continuation of what I saw yesterday. It is the third scenerio, I wrote about, but thought was less likely.
This is a slightly longer term view of whats going on. I think we are looking for a rebound tomorrow or Monday
Wow, it still has not crossed...but soon...