A little bear pennant formed on Friday. The target for the rising wedge is about 106, which looks like a good target for the bear pennant and the end of a wave 1 down.
The VIX can take another shot at piercing the upper BB. After that I suspect it to travel to the lower BB.
BPSPX:CPC is starting to curl as the dailies have been below the 20ma.
The wave 2 retrace did not make it to the 0.62 retrace level, but close enough. It looks like we have started minor 3 and are looking to finish minuette 1 of minute 1 looks to complete in the next couple of days. Then the retrace up for minuette 2 and a sharp drop for minuette 3 is shown above.
EW count above tries to predict the future. BPSPX:CPC was sharply down and we will see the 20ma curl over. Once it curls, its time to go short big.
VIX daily touched the upper BB. There is room for a little more wiggle up and then a trip back down for minuette2.
BPSPX:CPC still moving up. Still waiting for this one to curl over before making a large short bet. Based on this chart there is plenty of time to wait, you are not going to miss the bus on this drop because its going to be a big one.
VIX daily is compressing. Again it can remain in this state quite a while before it explodes up.
Note the green verticals. I am looking for the daily to cross the 50ma on this one.
Now this is the reminder of the big picture. Thats the biggest HS pattern EVER...
Now a close up view of the hourly. We have multiple rising wedges on SPY. Still it can easily pop out to the top in the short term. But soon we are going to see a drop.
We have formed a rising wedge of sorts (noted by the dashed orange lines.) I expect another run to the top side of that wedge and potentially a false breakout over the top.
A move up will correspond with a tightening of the VIX BB as it moves down. Similar to the contraction we experience in April.
BPSPX:CPC is moving up as expected. I am waiting for the 20ma (green) to curl back over down, before going short. For now it looks like there is more upward movement to come.
We see that the BPSPX:CPC has crossed up. So for the short term we should be experiencing bullishness. Looking for 114-115 in the next week or two and then a MAJOR drop.
VIX opened at the 20dma and closed toward the lower BB. I am expecting a move to the lower BB and a tightening of the BB before a major move up and out of the range.
