3/13/2011 update

The chart says it all...looks like P3 has started...

Update 02/08/11

We rebounded off the lower BB on the VIX. This pretty much guarantees that the next couple of days (or rather however long it takes to get to the upper BB) will be down in the market.

The BPSPX:CPC 20ma crossed the 50 going down and the MARKET has still risen! Right now is a tremendous low risk shorting opportunity!

01/30/11 Update

The VIX move was quite spectacular. We started near the lower BB and finished well above the upper BB. That type of move does not happen often and it does not bode well for the future of the market.
BPSPX:CPC 20ma looks to be curling over. I would short any bounced up on Monday or Tuesday. Confirmation of the move down requires the 20ma to cross the 50ma from above.

01/27/2011 Update

The VIX visited the lower BB. I expected a retreat to the 20ma, but the move to the lower BB gives more credence that the next 4-5 days will be down in the market.
The 20ma on the BPSPX:CPC has rolled over and the indicator has been going down even as the market has moved to new highs. I think our top is rounded.

01/23/11 Update

Sitting at the 78% retrace level. It has been a huge march up since last September.
VIX printed a huge white candle. So is it a move back to the MA before a huge move up?
BPSPX:CPC may have turned over. We will need a few more days before we can tell for sure, and even more time before the 20 crosses the 50.